Another Jobless Recovery?

Chart of the Week for July 25-31, 2003

Since World War II the end of a recession has led to a decrease in the unemployment rate as the economy re-enters the expansionary phase. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared the end of the most recent recession to be November 2001. Through June 2003 (nineteen months after the end of the recession) we have not seen the job creation normally expected in an economic recovery. The unemployment rate has actually increased from 5.6% to 6.4%. After the 1990-1991 recession, the unemployment rate continued to climb for fourteen months, thus the moniker “Jobless Recovery.” As the chart shows, the economy appears to be following the same employment pattern as the 1991 recovery.

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