Are the Employment Numbers Really that Bad?

Chart of the Week for March 12-18, 2004

The stock market wavered last week after reports of a weak labor market. Are the employment numbers really that bad? The chart shows a recent upturn in nonfarm payroll employment. Total nonfarm payroll employment has risen 364,000 since August 2003. Each of the major industries surveyed for this index has experienced some improvement in the past year. Temporary employment services and private education and health services have experienced the greatest growth adding 215,000 and 291,000 new jobs respectively over the past 12 months. Manufacturing continues to lose jobs but the rate of job loss has slowed to an average of 16,000 per month versus an average of 62,000 per month for the first 8 months of 2003. The recent improvement in employment is still below some analysts’ predictions and may hurt investor confidence.

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