2009 Charts of the Week
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- Changes in M1 Money Supply & Velocity
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted May 29, 2009
- The chart above illustrates the quarterly year-over-year percentage change in U.S. M1 money supply and M1 money velocity over time. M1 money supply is a measure of how much money is currently in circulation. It includes all physical currency, as well as demand deposits (like checking accounts). Money velocity is a measure of the rate at which the existing money supply is being used to purchase goods and services. It is typically calculated as the ratio of GDP to money supply.
- Seasonality of U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted May 22, 2009
- The chart above illustrates retail gasoline prices in the United States over the past five years. The chart's underlying data is gathered by the American Automobile Association ("AAA") on a weekly basis. The prices shown above represent the average national dollar cost per gallon of regular unleaded gasoline in the U.S.
- Volatility and Equity Market Performance
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted May 15, 2009
- The chart above compares the monthly price movements of the S&P 500 Index and the Chicago Board of Options Exchange Volatility Index ("VIX") over the period of time from January 1999 to April 2009. A general inverse relationship trend is discernible from the data, meaning that the VIX is likely to move down when the S&P 500 Index moves up, and vice versa.
- Changes to Retirement Plan Asset Class Exposure Over Time
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted May 08, 2009
- The chart above shows that asset class-level exposure in retirement plans has generally shifted from equity to bond and cash investments over the past three years. “Cash” includes both money market and stable value investments. “Equity” includes large, medium, and small capitalization domestic investments, as well as international and emerging market investments. Exposure to other asset classes such as balanced funds, target-date funds, specialty funds, other hybrid funds, and company stock have been excluded.
- Fixed Income Sector Performance (as of 3/31/09)
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted May 01, 2009
- Similar to the fixed income market as a whole, returns for individual sectors may go up or down. A sector may outperform over an extended period and then underperform in subsequent periods. The chart above compares the performance of eleven fixed income sectors for the calendar year 2008 and the first quarter of 2009.
- Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap 1-Year Rolling Return Difference
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted April 24, 2009
- The chart above shows that small-capitalization ("small-cap") and large-capitalization ("large-cap") stocks may post dramatically different returns from one year to the next. The data points above the 0% mark represent the 1-year rolling periods during which large-cap stocks have outperformed small-cap stocks, while the data points below the 0% mark show the 1-year rolling periods in which small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks.
- Top Ten Countries in the MSCI EAFE Index
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted April 16, 2009
- The Morgan Stanley Capital International ("MSCI") Europe, Australasia, and Far East Index ("EAFE") is a benchmark used to measure non-U.S. developed country stock market performance. The bar chart above shows the gross performance in U.S. dollars of the top 10 countries by weighting in the index as of March 31, 2009, with Japan having the highest weighting listed first and Hong Kong having the tenth-highest weighting listed last. Also included is the gross return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, an index that measures the equity stock market performance of 25 emerging market countries, which are not included in the EAFE Index.
- S&P 500 Sector Performance (as of 3/31/09)
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted April 9, 2009
- Similar to the stock market as a whole, returns for individual sectors of the stock market may go up and down. A sector may outperform over an extended period and then underperform in subsequent periods. The chart compares the performance of the S&P 500 Index to its ten underlying sectors for the years ended March 31, 2008 and March 31, 2009.
- Capital Markets Review Period Ended 3/31/2009
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted April 3, 2009
- Capital markets were mixed for the quarter ended March 31, 2009. U.S. Equity markets, as measured by the S&P 500 (large-cap), Russell 3000 (total market), and Russell 2000 (small-cap), were down for the quarter, 1 year and 5 year periods. The Russell 2000 (small-cap) posted a gain over the 10 year period of 1.93%, but the Russell 3000 (total market) and S&P 500 (large-cap) were down 2.25% and 3.00%, respectively. Developed international markets, as measured by the MSCI EAFE, were negative for the quarter, 1 year, 5 year, and 10 year periods. It is worth noting, however, that all of these equity indices performed very well in the month of March. For example, the Russell 3000 (total market) posted an 8.76% return for March, its largest monthly gain since December 1991. The bond market, as measured by the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index, had positive returns for the quarter, 1 year, 5 year, and 10 year periods.
- Consider the Tax Effect
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted March 27, 2009
- Long-term investors should consider the tax advantage of retirement plans for future retirement and health care needs. The benefits of a tax-deferred account compound over time, as illustrated above.
- Value Versus Growth Monthly Returns
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted March 20, 2009
- It is often debated whether higher stock market returns can be achieved by investing in stocks labeled as "growth" or "value". Historically, those seeking to invest in value stocks search for undervalued companies with relatively low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and high dividend yields. On the other hand, those investing in growth stocks search for companies with high earnings growth that tend to sell at higher P/E ratios and have lower dividend yields.
- Increased Affordability of Homes Amidst the U.S. Real Estate Downturn
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted March 13, 2009
- Much of the news emanating from the U.S. residential real estate market has been bleak over the last 18-24 months: falling asset values, rising inventory, and decreased home sales. However, these negative factors have combined to help push housing affordability, as measured by the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Homebuyer Affordability Index, to an all-time high. Coupled with recently passed housing stimulus legislation, this increased affordability may induce would-be buyers to enter the real estate market, in spite of the weakened economy and increased unemployment.
- Quantifying the Credit Crunch
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted March 6, 2009
- The ability of businesses and consumers to access credit has decreased over the last year for many reasons. The lack of credit is commonly referred to as the "Credit Crunch". The chart above examines this trend by illustrating corporate credit risk and banks willingness to lend money to consumers. The perceived corporate credit risk is measured by the U.S. Treasury Euro Dollar Spread, or the "TED" spread. The TED spread is a ratio of the 90-Day U.S. Treasury Bill interest rates to the London Interbank Offered Rate ("LIBOR") interest rates and is used as an indicator of perceived fear or confidence in the market for private financing. An increase means perceived credit risk is rising, while a decrease means credit risk is decreasing. Banks Willingness To Lend To Consumers represents the survey results of senior loan officers, gathered by The Federal Reserve Board. The survey measures the quarterly changes in bank sentiment for granting loans to consumers.
- Lower Mortgage Rates, Increased Refinance Activity
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted February 27, 2009
- Over the last few months, the national average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage has dropped and the number of Americans applying to refinance their mortgage has risen. Refinance activity is measured by the Mortgage Bankers Association ("MBA") Refinance Index*. According to this index, the number of refinance applications for the three months ended January 2009 has increased 84% from the previous three month period. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage reported is the national average rate. As of February 20, 2009, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, fell 21% or 138 basis points (1 basis point equals 0.01%) from its recent weekly high of 6.71% in October 2008.
- Savings Rate Up, Consumption Down
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted February 20, 2009
- The U.S. personal savings rate rose to 2.9% for the fourth quarter of 2008, while U.S. personal consumption contracted. This is significant since higher savings rate coupled with lower levels of consumer consumption could slow or delay an economic recovery. The savings rate is measured by personal savings as a percent of disposable income and personal consumption represents consumer spending on goods and services. The chart above compares the savings rate and the percent change in personal consumption for each quarter beginning in 2000.
- Commodity Prices Have Dropped
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted February 13, 2009
- The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index ("CRB") is a broad measure of global commodity prices covering industrial raw materials, agricultural products and energy. As the graph above shows, the CRB rose sharply between mid-2007 and mid-2008. However as the world economy slowed down, fears of a deeper and longer than expected global recession contributed to a sharp drop in global demand for various commodities and their prices. The CRB declined by more than 50 percent between July 2, 2008 and February 11, 2009.
- Bond Spreads Have Widened
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted February 6, 2009
- Bond yields generally reflect the base cost of borrowing plus costs for a number of risks, including the cost of credit worthiness, or the "risk premium". The U.S. Government is considered the gold standard for creditworthiness and its bonds are generally considered risk-free. The creditworthiness of corporate borrowers range from investment grade (moderate risk premium) to high-yield (higher risk premium). As the chart above illustrates, beginning in 2007 and continuing through 2008, bond investors have expressed their concern over the creditworthiness of corporate borrowers by fleeing the sector effectively pushing corporate bond prices down and yields up. At the same time, investors have been willing to pay more for the safety of U.S. Government bonds which has driven government bond prices up and yields down. This change in investor activity is called the "flight to quality".
- Patchwork Chart of Investment Returns
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted January 30, 2009
- The chart of Investment Returns ranks key market indices, representing different asset classes, in order of calendar year performance. The asset class with the best calendar year performance is on top, and the asset class with the lowest calendar year performance is at the bottom of the chart.
- Reduction of Risk Over Time
Stocks from 1926 - 2008 - MarketView Chart of the Week, posted January 23, 2009
- The above chart shows the range of equity returns, as represented by the S&P 500 Index, for various time periods since 1926. An equity investment matching the performance of the S&P 500 Index for a one-year period would have produced results ranging from a 163% gain (July 1932 to June 1933) to a 68% loss (July 1931 to June 1932). However, the range of annualized returns is narrower for longer rolling time periods. For example, holding the same investment for twenty years returned as much as 18.25% per year (April 1981 to March 2000) and never less than 1.89% (September 1930 to August 1949).
- Top Ten Countries in the MSCI EAFE Index
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted January 16, 2009
- The Morgan Stanley Capital International ("MSCI") Europe, Australasia, and the Far East Index ("EAFE") is a benchmark used to measure non-U.S. developed country equity stock market performance. The bar chart above shows the performance in U.S. Dollars of the top 10 countries by weighting in the index as of December 31, 2008, with Japan having the highest weighting listed first and Sweden having the lowest weighting listed last. Also included is the gross return of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, an index that measures the equity stock market performance of 25 emerging market countries, which are not included in the EAFE index.
- S&P 500 Sector Performance (as of 12/31/08)
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted January 9, 2009
- Similar to the stock market as a whole, returns for individual sectors of the stock market may go up and down. A sector may outperform over an extended period and then underperform in subsequent periods. The chart above compares the performance of the S&P 500 Index to its ten underlying sectors for calendar years 2007 and 2008.
- Capital Markets Review, Period Ended 12/31/2008
- MarketView Chart of the Week, posted January 2, 2009
- Capital markets were mixed for the year ended 2008 with the U.S. Equity markets down for the quarter, 1 year and 5 year periods, developed international markets down for the quarter and 1 year periods and up for the 5 and 10 year periods, and the bond marketup for all periods shown.
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